Te Puna Umanga Venture Taranaki, the regional development agency, has released the latest Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor for Taranaki, covering the year to June 2025. The figures, shared today at the Positioning for the Future: Embracing Bold Business event, show that while the local economy is facing headwinds, there are signs of resilience and growing business optimism.

The Taranaki economy declined by 2.8% provisionally in the year to June, compared with a national decline of 0.8%. The energy sector, metal product manufacturing, and professional services are among the industries feeling the effects of the downturn most. Employment for Taranaki residents fell by 2.0%, and unemployment lifted to 4.3% from 3.7% a year ago, although this remains below the national rate of 5%.

The rural sector continues to underpin the region, with the region’s total dairy payout for the 2024/25 season estimated at $1,814 million, and the 2025/26 season forecast to potentially be along similar levels, assuming that production levels from last season are maintained. These more positive conditions, alongside higher international meat prices and stronger forestry exports, will help to offset weaker conditions elsewhere, with benefits flowing through to rural communities, households and regional spending.

Kelvin Wright, Chief Executive at Te Puna Umanga Venture Taranaki, says the mid-year numbers are not unexpected, but the outlook is shifting.

“Most businesses are slightly more optimistic than they were a year ago,” says Wright. “But we need to balance optimism with pragmatism. We encourage business leaders to ask themselves: Where do I want to be in six months? And what can I do now to get there?”

Venture Taranaki also released results from the Taranaki Business Survey, which gathered responses from 188 enterprises. This year’s survey explored business sentiment alongside a special focus on risk-taking and innovation. Forty percent of respondents expect the national economy to improve, up from 26% in June 2024. When asked about Taranaki conditions, 29% expect improvement and 39% anticipate conditions to remain the same.

Hiring intentions are strengthening, with 19% of businesses planning to take on more staff, up from 12% in 2024. While most employers expect employee numbers to remain steady, skill shortages remain a persistent challenge across education, healthcare, IT, and trades.

The survey also highlighted a strong appetite for innovation, with 86% of respondents open to adopting new ideas, trialling technologies, or exploring new markets. Nearly half of those who acted as early movers reported positive results, reinforcing that innovation pays off when conditions are right.

This theme was explored at the Positioning for the Future event via a keynote address from business leader and strategist Rod Snodgrass, who challenged local enterprises to rethink growth and question how their current business model might be disrupted.

He spoke on innovation, adoption of new technologies, and the common attributes of exponential businesses, emphasising that ‘growth is critical – if you’re not growing, you're dying’.  

“We have some great examples of Taranaki businesses taking calculated risks, innovating, and expanding into new markets,” says Wright.

“There is huge potential to lean into our regional strengths to unlock new opportunities or capitalise on emerging sectors. Whether its investing in technology, diversifying into high-value markets, or rethinking land use, Venture Taranaki plays a pivotal role to support local businesses to catalyse these opportunities for future success.’

If you’re a local business looking for advice or support, explore the range of services offered by Te Puna Umanga Venture Taranaki here.

Visit www.venture.org.nz/regional-intelligence/business-survey/ to view the full survey results. If you are a business owner and would like to be included in the next Taranaki Business Survey, you can also join the Taranaki Business Survey mailing list.

Taranaki Economic Snapshot (Year to June 2025) – Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor

• Regional GDP: Provisionally down 8%, compared to the national decline of 0.8%.
• Employment: Fell 0%, with job losses concentrated in construction, metal product manufacturing, and retail.
• Unemployment Rate: 3%, still lower than the national average of 5.0%.
• Consumer Spending: Down 5%, reflecting continued household caution.
• Region Total Dairy Payout: Estimated $1.814 billion for the 2024/25 season.
• House Sales: Up 2%, supported by steady demand.
• Residential Consents: Increased by 1% (in number), while nationally consents rose just 1.0%.
• Tourism Spend: Down 1%, driven by our high exposure in the domestic market, however we have seen a small uplift in international expenditure. Guest nights aren’t impacted proportionally to the decline in spend, down only 0.06%. This indicates visitor demand remains relative to June last year; however, when they visit, domestic visitors in particular are spending much less.
• Business Units: Declined by 3%, compared to national growth of 0.9%.
• Jobseeker Support: Recipient numbers rose 1%, below the national increase of 11.7%.
• View the full report here: venture.org.nz/regional-intelligence

Taranaki Business Survey Snapshot (August 2025)

• Confidence in NZ economy: 40% expect improvement over the next year, up from 26% in 2024.
• Confidence in Taranaki economy: 29% expect improvement, 39% expect stability, 29% expect deterioration.
• Sales Outlook: 44% of businesses anticipate higher sales in the next six months, compared with 27% in 2024.
• Staffing Intentions: 65% expect employee numbers to remain steady, 19% plan to hire, 13% expect reductions.
• Innovation Attitudes: 86% are open to adopting new ideas, trialling technologies, or exploring new markets.
• Early Movers: Nearly half of businesses that took bold steps reported positive results, while only 1% had negative experiences.
• Key Barriers: Rising costs, skill shortages, regulation, and political uncertainty remain top concerns.
• Opportunities: Competitive advantage, financial support, leadership mindset, and collaboration are seen as key enablers for innovation.